According to the Annual Threat Assessment prepared by two Lithuanian special services, the Department of State Security and Military Intelligence of Lithuania, Russia consistently strengthens military facilities in the Kaliningrad region, however, the additional NATO forces deployed in the Baltic region and the growing national forces of Baltic countries reduce the likelihood of conflict, Interfax reported.
“The [Russian] military group deployed in the region is consistently being strengthened: the old one is being updated and new military infrastructure is being created. New military units are being formed, new armaments and military equipment are being supplied, and intensive military training is being conducted on land and sea landfills of the region,” the document said.
According to the Threat Assessment, Belarus, which is bordering on Lithuania, is given the role of a “buffer” state in the Russian military doctrine. The Russian Federation uses Belarus to plan military operations and demonstrate military power, and the deepening military integration and economic dependence reduces the ability of Minsk to implement independent defense and security policies.
According to the Lithuanian special services, by expanding the military presence in the Kaliningrad region, Russia increases the ability to conduct military operations within 24-48 hours from the moment of receiving an order.
On the other hand, the authors of the document emphasize that in the event of a military conflict, the increase in the national armed forces of the Baltic countries and the NATO facilities deployed in the region will allow avoiding the wide involvement of NATO and reducing the likelihood of a conflict in the region.
Earlier, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko ordered to strengthen border security and demanded to take "exhaustive measures" to increase border guard units and form new ones.