Estonian authorities concerned that some of the country's residents don't see Russia as a threat
The Estonian government may lose control over the northeast region of the country where the Russian-speaking population prevails, in the event of a conflict with Russia. Ilmar Raag, advisor to the government on psychological defense, together with other contemporaries, authored a report that explained the risks.
In winter, the Governmental Commission for Security was presented with a secret analysis of the situation in Ida-Viru county in the northeastern part of the country. The report spoke about “consistent Russification” of the county. “If we do nothing, we will actually lose this county and we risk that in case of a conflict with Russia we will not be able to monitor the situation in the northeastern towns.”
The authors asserted that a small network comprising of about 200 local saboteurs can be enough for conflict. A disadvantaged socio-economic situation in the region can become an issue of concern. Moreover, only a fifth part of the 150,000 local residents are Estonians and in the large cities the Estonians only comprise 5% of the population.
The number of inhabitants in the county was reduced by 21% over the last 7 years. By 2040 it could be decreased by another quarter. Ida-Viru has the highest rate of unemployment (about 30%) and the highest crime rates.
Residents are not likely to have a sense of community with the Estonian Republic. Being under the influence of information from Russia and Russian TV, only 6% believe that the threat is coming from the eastern neighbor, while 44% consider Estonia’s main ally—the USA—as the real threat.
Moreover, 60% of residents are against the presence of NATO troops in the country, believing that good relations with Russia will guarantee security. One in three believe that Russia has a right to defend their fellow citizens in the territory of the former USSR.