Estonian Foreign Intelligence has estimated the strategic objectives of Russia and, according to them, the conflict in Ukraine may spread to Baltic countries.
The military conflict in the Baltics may erupt due to miscalculations by the Russian command. This was stated in the annual report of the Foreign Intelligence of Estonia. According to the Delfi news portal, these miscalculations, in turn, could be the consequence of the Russians' view that there is a military threat from the West.
The strategic goal of Russia in the western direction is the restriction of the US military presence in Europe. The far reaching goal of Russia is a complete withdrawal of the US forces from Europe, the report says.
Estonian Intelligence noted that Russia calculates the situation for the whole of Europe and sees the connections with what is happening in other regions. Thus, the conflict in Ukraine may erupt in Baltic States, the report said. Russia might decide to use military force there in the event of a conflict with NATO. If Moscow will not be able to respond adequately, it will try to consolidate its positions, creating tension in the Baltics.
In addition, according to the Estonian Intelligence, Russia believes that the Baltics represent a constant threat to the Russian Federation. Moscow believes that it could conduct a military operation there before NATO will be able to intervene effectively, the report said.