Putin unmoved by Trump's ultimatum as confidants predict Ukraine front-line collapse
Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly unwilling to end the war during the summer offensive, despite an "ultimatum" from Washington. According to sources close to the Kremlin, who spoke to Reuters, Russia sees no reason to stop until it occupies four regions. The deadline for U.S. President Donald Trump's "ultimatum" is set for this Friday, yet Moscow is not seeking a truce. Putin maintains confidence in victory and doubts the impact of additional U.S. sanctions after three years of constraints. One insider stated that the military objectives outweigh the chance to improve relations with the United States. The goal involves the complete capture of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Only then is Putin prepared to discuss a peace agreement.
The media reports that direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul are merely an effort to assure Trump that Putin hasn't abandoned peace. These meetings reportedly lack substantial content but have facilitated humanitarian exchanges. According to a source, despite concerns over deteriorating ties with Washington, Putin hopes for future friendship and trade restoration with the West. Halting the war while his troops advance is seen as senseless; both the populace and the military might not comprehend such a move. Furthermore, the General Staff has assured the president that the front in Ukraine will collapse in 2-3 months. An unnamed source described the prospect of fresh sanctions as "painful and unpleasant" but not disastrous. Doubts persist in Moscow regarding their potential harm, and there's skepticism about whether Trump's threats might prove empty once again.
The Kremlin cannot envision China ceasing its purchase of Russian oil and even anticipates a price hike. Trump himself admitted Russia's adeptness at evading sanctions, noting, "They're shrewd characters, and they're quite good at avoiding sanctions, so we'll see what happens," during remarks to reporters over the weekend. A source emphasized that Putin is turning away from the U.S. peace offer made back in September, entailing a full ceasefire in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions, U.S. recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, and de facto recognition of Russia’s control over territories seized since 2022. The source called it a "fantastic opportunity" but added that ending a war is significantly harder than starting one.
Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation, remarked that Putin has been deceived. Kovalenko indicated that misleading forecasts typically come from his aide Nikolai Patrushev, first deputy head of Putin’s administration Sergey Kirienko, and Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov. "Patrushev benefits from digging Putin deeper into the conflict in order to position his son as a successor, not to mention other kickbacks. Kirienko from Putin’s administration, too, cashes in from the war's logistics and consolidates regional authority. Meanwhile, Gerasimov knows nothing beyond warfare. As for Putin, he’s a fan of simple solutions and still trusts paper reports," explained Kovalenko.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, stated that President Vladimir Putin is open to meeting with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, but only after "preparatory work at an expert level". On August 1, Putin attempted to place blame on Ukraine for stalling peace talks.