Russia withdraws from Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
Russia has officially withdrawn from its moratorium on the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles (INF). This move paves the way for potential tests of the new "Oreshnik" missile systems at the Kapustin Yar range. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the cessation of the unilateral moratorium, citing the disappearance of conditions needed for compliance and placing responsibility on the United States and its allies. According to the ministry, there is ongoing deployment of U.S.-made land-based INF missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
The Kremlin suggests that the U.S. armed forces have allegedly completed tests of several new INF systems and have begun serial production. Reports indicate the transfer of U.S. missile systems to allied territories, including Denmark, the Philippines, and Australia, with plans to deploy Typhon and Dark Eagle systems in Germany by 2026. The Russian response will be based on an interdepartmental analysis of the U.S. and other Western missile deployments, said the foreign ministry's statement. In light of these developments, there has been a temporary closure of the airspace over the Kapustin Yar range in Astrakhan from August 4 to August 8.
While Russia's Defense Ministry has not commented, Ukrainian analysts speculate that Moscow could conduct tests of the new "Oreshnik" intermediate-range ballistic missile system (IRBM), purportedly already in serial production. Analysts from Defense Express suggest these claims might involve as few as one battalion—consisting of 2-3 mobile launchers and a few support vehicles being deployed at the range.
There is uncertainty around the production capabilities, but Russian analysts believe their defense industry could produce another "Oreshnik" battalion by the end of 2025. Conversations regarding the deployment of these missile systems, potentially in Belarus or Russia's European areas, appear intended to make an impact in the ongoing information conflict with the West.
Russia has previously developed, tested, and deployed INF missiles, including Iskander-K cruise missiles, even before officially ending the moratorium. One such complex attacked Kyiv on July 31, 2025, skirting former INF Treaty limitations. On June 23, President Vladimir Putin announced the ramp-up of the "Oreshnik" missile system production, boasting of its combat effectiveness.
At the start of January 2025, the U.S. successfully conducted a live-fire exercise using the medium-range surface-to-surface missile system known as the Typhon Weapon System, a crucial component of the U.S. Army's strategy within the 500 to 1500 km range.